📂 TUESDAY – September 8, 2026 Single-Stock Deep Dive: “Tariff Exposure Decoder”

Tariffs sound macro.

For individual companies, they are brutally specific.

Two firms in the same sector can have completely different tariff exposure depending on where they source components, manufacture products, negotiate contracts, and set prices.

Today’s Intel Drop maps the tariff risk hiding inside one stock.

Use this before assuming a company is “domestic” just because most of its revenue comes from the U.S.

💡PROMPT TEXT:

(copy & paste the below text into your preferred AI model: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, Meta, etc.)

You are conducting an institutional-grade “Tariff Exposure Decoder” on one publicly traded company as of September 8, 2026.

USER PROVIDES:

TICKER:
OPTIONAL THESIS:

GOAL:

Determine how tariffs, import duties, sourcing geography, manufacturing footprint, and trade restrictions affect the company’s revenue, margins, pricing, and competitive position.

Use the latest:

- 10-K and 10-Q filings
- Earnings transcripts
- Supplier disclosures
- Import data where credible
- Manufacturing disclosures
- Country-of-origin data
- Tariff schedules
- Competitor commentary
- Management pricing guidance

STEP 1 — MAP THE SUPPLY CHAIN

Identify where the company:

- Sources raw materials
- Sources components
- Manufactures finished goods
- Assembles products
- Warehouses inventory
- Sells products

Separate revenue geography from sourcing geography.

STEP 2 — IDENTIFY TARIFF-SENSITIVE INPUTS

Determine exposure to:

- China
- Mexico
- Canada
- Europe
- Southeast Asia
- Other major sourcing regions

Identify the specific products or components exposed.

STEP 3 — ESTIMATE DIRECT TARIFF EXPOSURE

Where possible estimate:

- Imported cost base
- Tariffable cost base
- Current tariff rates
- Incremental cost exposure

Use ranges where disclosure is incomplete.

Never invent precise percentages.

STEP 4 — TEST PASS-THROUGH ABILITY

Determine whether the company can:

- Raise prices
- Add surcharges
- Renegotiate contracts
- Shift sourcing
- Localize production
- Change product mix

Classify pass-through ability:

- Strong
- Moderate
- Weak
- Very Weak

STEP 5 — TEST CUSTOMER ELASTICITY

Ask:

If prices rise because of tariffs, will customers stay?

Evaluate:

- Switching costs
- Substitute availability
- Competitive intensity
- Brand loyalty
- Contract structure

STEP 6 — ANALYZE COMPETITIVE POSITION

Determine whether tariffs could:

- Hurt the company more than peers
- Hurt peers more than the company
- Create domestic share gains
- Accelerate reshoring
- Shift demand across countries

STEP 7 — BUILD THE TARIFF EXPOSURE TABLE

Include:

- Exposure Category
- Geography
- Estimated Economic Importance
- Tariff Sensitivity
- Pass-Through Ability
- Competitive Effect
- Margin Risk
- Confidence Level

THEN ASSIGN:

- Direct Tariff Risk: 1–10
- Supply Chain Flexibility: 1–10
- Pricing Offset Ability: 1–10
- Competitive Advantage Score: 1–10
- Overall Tariff Risk Rating: Low / Moderate / High / Critical

STEP 8 — RUN THREE SCENARIOS

A. Tariffs remain unchanged
B. Tariffs rise moderately
C. Tariffs rise sharply

For each assess:

- Revenue
- Gross margin
- EPS
- Free cash flow
- Competitive positioning
- Valuation

STEP 9 — FINAL CONCLUSION

Answer:

1. What is the largest tariff exposure?
2. What is management’s best defense?
3. Could tariffs create a competitive advantage?
4. What does consensus appear to misunderstand?
5. What single disclosure matters most next quarter?

Separate facts, estimates, and inference.

Output in a clean table + 3–5 sentence explanation why this matters right now.

END PROMPT

→ Submit to AI model to receive actionable output.

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