📂 WEDNESDAY – Sector Scanner: “Dot Plot Repricing Matrix”

Today is not only about the Fed’s rate decision.

The new Summary of Economic Projections tells us what policymakers collectively expect for inflation, growth, unemployment, and future rates. The gap between the market’s rate path and the Fed’s projected path can create the real trade.

The FOMC statement is scheduled for 2:00 p.m. ET, followed by the press conference at 2:30 p.m. The September meeting also includes updated projections.

August retail sales arrive earlier this morning, adding a fresh consumer-demand signal before the Fed decision.

Today’s Intel Drop turns the decision, dot plot, economic projections, and retail data into a sector-level repricing map.

💡PROMPT TEXT:

(copy & paste the below text into your preferred AI model: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, Meta, etc.)

You are a macro equity strategist building a “Dot Plot Repricing Matrix” after the September 16, 2026 FOMC decision.

IMPORTANT:

Only run the full analysis after the Federal Reserve has officially released:

- FOMC statement
- September Summary of Economic Projections
- Federal funds rate projections
- Chair press conference, if available

If these are not yet available, provide the framework only.

Never fabricate Fed projections.

GOAL:

Determine where the Federal Reserve’s new economic and rate outlook differs from:

1. Its June projections
2. Current market expectations
3. Current equity-sector pricing

STEP 1 — COMPARE THE FED DECISION

Identify:

- Policy-rate decision
- Statement language changes
- Voting split
- Inflation language
- Employment language
- Growth language
- Risk-balance language

Compare with July.

STEP 2 — DECODE THE DOT PLOT

Compare September versus June median projections for:

- End-2026 fed funds rate
- End-2027 fed funds rate
- End-2028 fed funds rate
- Longer-run rate

Also assess:

- Distribution of dots
- Dispersion
- Outliers
- Degree of internal disagreement

Do not overstate precision.

STEP 3 — COMPARE ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS

Analyze changes to:

- Real GDP growth
- Unemployment
- Headline PCE
- Core PCE

For each classify:

- More bullish
- Less bullish
- More inflationary
- Less inflationary
- More labor concern
- Less labor concern

STEP 4 — COMPARE FED VS MARKET

Use current market pricing where available.

Compare:

FED-IMPLIED RATE PATH

versus

MARKET-IMPLIED RATE PATH.

Identify where disagreement is largest.

Classify markets as pricing:

- More easing than the Fed
- Roughly aligned
- Less easing than the Fed

STEP 5 — INCORPORATE RETAIL SALES

Use officially released August retail sales.

Separate:

- Headline sales
- Control-group or core measures where relevant
- Autos
- Gasoline
- Restaurants
- Online
- Building materials
- Discretionary categories

Determine whether consumption supports or contradicts the Fed’s growth outlook.

STEP 6 — MAP THE CURVE

Assess likely implications for:

- 2-year Treasury
- 10-year Treasury
- Yield curve
- Real yields
- Dollar
- Credit spreads

Use scenario language, not certainty.

STEP 7 — MAP EQUITY FACTORS

Analyze:

- Long-duration growth
- Small caps
- High-dividend equities
- Quality
- Value
- Cyclicals
- Defensives
- Highly leveraged equities
- Unprofitable growth
- Momentum

STEP 8 — MAP EQUITY SECTORS

Include:

- Technology
- Communication Services
- Financials
- Consumer Discretionary
- Consumer Staples
- Industrials
- Real Estate
- Utilities
- Health Care
- Energy
- Materials

For each evaluate:

- Rate sensitivity
- Earnings sensitivity
- Consumer sensitivity
- Financing sensitivity
- Valuation sensitivity

STEP 9 — BUILD THE DOT PLOT REPRICING TABLE

Include:

- Sector / Factor
- Duration Sensitivity
- Financing Sensitivity
- Growth Sensitivity
- Fed vs Market Impact
- Yield-Curve Impact
- Earnings Impact
- Valuation Impact
- Representative ETF
- Net Signal
- Confidence Level

STEP 10 — FIND THE CONTRARIAN READS

Identify:

1. Three apparent rate-cut beneficiaries where the fundamental effect may be negative
2. Three sectors where a hawkish-looking Fed outcome could still be bullish
3. Two sectors benefiting from lower rates through earnings rather than valuation
4. Two groups where the yield curve matters more than the level of rates
5. One market consensus conclusion not supported by the actual projections

STEP 11 — BUILD THE NEXT-MEETING TRIPWIRE DASHBOARD

List upcoming data capable of changing the Fed path:

- Payrolls
- CPI
- PPI
- PCE
- Retail sales
- Claims
- ISM
- Housing

For each state what would push policy expectations:

- More hawkish
- More dovish

Clearly separate:

- Fed statements
- Fed projections
- Market pricing
- Your interpretation

Output in a clean table + 3–5 sentence explanation why this matters right now.

END PROMPT

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