📂 TUESDAY – Single-Stock Deep Dive: “Guidance Credibility Audit”

By mid-December, the market starts to separate companies that guide credibly from those that consistently overpromise. This difference often determines early-January performance.

Today’s Intel Drop runs a Guidance Credibility Audit on any single stock—examining how management guidance has historically tracked reality.

Use this to avoid names that talk well but execute poorly.

PROMPT TEXT:

(copy & paste the below into your preferred AI model: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, Meta, etc.)

You are conducting a “Guidance Credibility Audit” for a single U.S. stock as of December 16, 2025.

User provides:
TICKER + brief context.

Tasks:

1) Historical Guidance Review (last 6–8 quarters)
- Revenue guidance vs actual results
- EPS guidance vs actual
- Frequency of upward/downward revisions
- Magnitude of misses or beats

2) Management Behavior
- Conservative vs promotional tone
- Pattern of walk-downs or resets
- Consistency in KPI definitions

3) Current Forward Guidance
- Latest guidance ranges
- Implied growth assumptions
- Embedded margin expectations

4) Market Interpretation
- Does the market discount guidance?
- Are valuation multiples aligned with credibility?
- Any signs of skepticism or trust?

5) Output a GUIDANCE TABLE:
- Quarter
- Original Guidance
- Actual Result
- Delta
- Credibility Score (1–5)

Finish with:
- Overall Credibility Rating (1–5)
- Whether current guidance is likely conservative or optimistic
- Key risk if guidance fails again

Output in a clean table + 3–5 sentence explanation why this matters right now.

END PROMPT

Submit to AI model to receive actionable output.

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