📂 MONDAY – Earnings Season Watchlist: “Expectation Asymmetry Screener”

As earnings season begins, the biggest moves rarely come from the best companies — they come from mispriced expectations. Stocks with low expectations and solid fundamentals often outperform, while “consensus favorites” disappoint on small misses.

Today’s Intel Drop screens for stocks entering earnings with asymmetric setups: limited downside if results are merely “okay,” but meaningful upside if execution is solid.

Use this to build a pre-earnings watchlist before volatility hits.

PROMPT TEXT:

(copy & paste the below into your preferred AI model: ChatGPT, Claude, Gemini, Perplexity, Grok, Meta, etc.)

You are screening for “Earnings Expectation Asymmetry” opportunities as of January 12, 2026.

Goal:
Identify 12–20 U.S. stocks entering Q4 earnings season with favorable risk/reward due to conservative expectations.

Filters:

1) Expectations Setup
- Consensus EPS growth muted or flat YoY
- Recent estimate revisions flat to slightly negative
- No extreme bullish sentiment priced in

2) Fundamental Stability
- Revenue growth stable or improving
- Margins not deteriorating sharply
- No balance-sheet stress

3) Valuation Context
- Forward multiple below its 3–5 year median
- No premium valuation requiring a “perfect” print

4) Earnings History
- History of meeting or modestly beating expectations
- No repeated large downside surprises

5) Liquidity & Size
- Market cap > $5B
- Average daily dollar volume > $30M

Output:

1) WATCHLIST TABLE:
- Ticker
- Company
- Sector
- Consensus Expectations Summary
- Valuation vs History
- Earnings Risk Profile
- Why expectations appear asymmetric

2) Summary (3–5 sentences):
- Why expectation asymmetry matters early in earnings season
- What types of stocks tend to outperform
- How to use this list tactically before reports

Output in a clean table + 3–5 sentence explanation why this matters right now.

END PROMPT

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